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13

Lanarra

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 49

Ayr · Christmas Parties At Western House Hotel Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened her account at Newcastle (6f) in October and creditable placed efforts on 3 of her 4 starts this year, latterly 1¼ lengths third of 9 to Mr Cool over C&D (good to firm) 12 days ago. Unlikely to be far away if in similar form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ayr 28/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 5f110y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0755 @ Ayr 09/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Musselburgh 27/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f15y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS27/0846 @ Musselburgh 14/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 49 · 1m2y Goo 124 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 46 · 6f Std 116 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 46 par4/106OR 466 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 48 · 5f212y Goo 123 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 49 · 5f182y Sft 129 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 49 par8/066OR 496 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 49 · 7f50y GF 122 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 49 · 6f Goo 120 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 49 par27/076OR 49projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Ayr63rd3rd0
2026-07-20Ayr64th4th0
2026-06-08Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-05-21Catterick62nd2nd0
2025-10-04Newcastle61st1st0
2025-09-14Musselburgh66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0714/098/0627/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/07/20254th50/10%0%0.00
09/08/20257th150/10%25%+0.25
27/08/20257th200/10%14%+0.14
14/09/20256th28/10%29%+0.29
04/10/20251st66/10%100%+1.00
21/05/20262nd33/10%75%+0.75
08/06/20263rd7/491%75%-0.16
20/07/20264th14/126%40%+0.14
27/07/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38