IvyArcIvyArc
6

Taaklam

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 63

Ayr · Christmas Parties At Western House Hotel Handicap · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair maiden. Placed in all-weather handicaps on his first two runs for this yard but a couple of lesser turf runs have followed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ffos Las 09/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 5f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS9/0754 @ Kempton 03/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 6f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Southwell 21/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/0956 @ Newcastle 14/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 63 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 63 par6 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 63 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 63 par13/046OR 636 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 63 · 6f16y Std 133 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 65 · 5f212y Goo 140 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 65 par21/056OR 655 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 64 · 5f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 64 par31/075OR 64projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Newcastle57th6th+1
2026-05-21Catterick65th5th0
2026-04-30Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-04-13Newcastle63rd3rd0
2025-10-14Newcastle63rd3rd0
2025-09-21Southwell55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0714/1021/0531/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/20257th15/261%33%-0.27
03/09/20258th7/163%30%-0.33
21/09/20255th15/261%43%-0.18
14/10/20253rd11/486%71%-0.14
13/04/20263rd4/179%83%+0.04
30/04/20262nd10/382%90%+0.08
21/05/20265th7/491%0%-0.91
31/07/20267th4/179%45%-0.33