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5

Thunderstorm Katie

5yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 61

Ayr · Christmas Parties At Western House Hotel Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Runner-up 4 times this year and had a quick turnaround as a possible excuse for below-par effort at Hamilton last weekend.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength65%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 16/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 62 · 5f Std 132 · beat its mark16/12/2025 · OR 62 par16/126OR 625 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 61 · 5f Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 60 · 5f7y Gd 131 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 60 par3/056OR 606 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 60 · 5f7y Gd 135 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 59 · 5f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 59 par20/055OR 595 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 6f6y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 62 · 5f7y Goo 140 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 62 par11/076OR 626 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 61 · 5f1y Gd 136 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 61 · 5f7y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 61 par1/085OR 61projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Hamilton59th8th+1
2026-07-31Musselburgh62nd2nd0
2026-07-11Hamilton66th6th0
2026-06-04Hamilton52nd1st+1
2026-05-20Ayr52nd1st+1
2026-05-15Hamilton62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1215/0511/071/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/12/20258th9/153%42%-0.11
20/01/20269th20/10%20%+0.20
03/05/20267th12/137%45%+0.09
15/05/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
20/05/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14
04/06/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
11/07/20266th10/382%29%-0.54
31/07/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
01/08/20269th5/174%20%-0.54