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11

Ukiyo

5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 53

Ayr · Christmas Parties At Western House Hotel Handicap · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Irish raider who was a creditable third at Fairyhouse (6f) in June and raced too keenly back at 7f a week later. Claims if on a going day but she's a bit hit and miss.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.4
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA56 @ Navan 08/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 56 · 5f180y Yie 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 56 par8/1056OR 56BHA56 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 56 · 7f Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 56 parBHA54 @ Dundalk 11/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 54 · 6f Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 54 par11/0254OR 54BHA54 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 54 · 5f180y Hvy 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 54 parBHA56 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 56 · 6f61y Sft 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 56 par3/0556OR 56BHA54 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 54 · 7f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 54 parBHA54 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR 54 · 6f63y Yie 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 54 par3/0654OR 54BHA55 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 55 · 6f Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 55 parBHA54 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 54 · 7f Sft 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 54 par19/0654OR 54projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA548th7th+1
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA553rd2nd+1
2026-06-03CurraghBHA5415th14th+1
2026-05-31ListowelBHA542nd1st+1
2026-05-03SligoBHA5612th12th+0
2026-03-30NavanBHA542nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1030/033/0619/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/10/202511th7/282%38%-0.44
16/01/202611th33/10%23%+0.23
11/02/20267th22/10%54%+0.54
30/03/20262nd16/116%93%+0.77
03/05/202612th15/261%15%-0.45
31/05/20262nd16/116%93%+0.77
03/06/202615th11/142%26%-0.16
12/06/20263rd9/153%86%+0.33
19/06/20268th6/168%30%-0.38