Whiskey Kisses
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 62
Ayr · Christmas Parties At Western House Hotel Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 4 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-03-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 25/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 20/06/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |