3
Black Storm
5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 67
Ayr · Book The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 50y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Newcastle | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 29/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 28/09/2025 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 10% | -0.64 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |