7
Circle Of Trust
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 69
Ayr · Book The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 50y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Leicester | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Catterick | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 12/08/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 27/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 25/04/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |