4
Phoenix Of Dreams
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 66
Ayr · Book The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 50y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 13
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 06/01/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 19/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 10/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 20/04/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 54% | -0.22 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |