2
Runninsonofagun
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 67
Ayr · Book The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 50y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/15
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Carlisle | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 05/05/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 29/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 64% | -0.23 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 88% | -0.10 |