Stoic Poet
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 68
Ayr · Book The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 50y
#11
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Musselburgh | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Haydock | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Haydock | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Hamilton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-07-07 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/06/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 07/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 12/08/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 27/09/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |