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11

Supreme Clarets

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 65

Ayr · Book The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 50y

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still a maiden but went close in 7f handicaps at Musselburgh and Carlisle in June/July. Not helped by an awkward start when a below-form fourth at Chester since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 12/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 71 · 6f213y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 71 par12/094OR 715 @ Ripon 27/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 71 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 71 par3 @ Newmarket 11/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 70 · 7f Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 70 par11/103OR 705 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m2y Gd 129 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 66 · 7f Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 66 par26/044OR 665 @ Haydock 21/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 66 · 6f212y Sft 132 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 7f15y Gd 134 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 65 par22/066OR 655 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 65 · 6f195y Goo 130 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 65 par4 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 65 · 7f127y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 65 par25/074OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Chester44th3rd+1
2026-07-09Carlisle52nd2nd0
2026-06-22Musselburgh62nd3rd−1
2026-05-21Haydock59th9th0
2026-04-26Wetherby44th3rd+1
2026-04-12Musselburgh57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0912/0422/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 13
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength68%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20252nd3/184%80%-0.04
27/09/20253rd16/116%67%+0.51
11/10/20256th40/10%17%+0.17
12/04/20267th10/147%33%-0.14
26/04/20264th18/15%70%+0.65
21/05/20269th5/174%27%-0.46
22/06/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40
09/07/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06
25/07/20264th6/168%57%-0.11