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Ubetterseethis

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 68

Ayr · Book The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 50y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

6/1, creditable fourth of 8 in handicap at Chester (7.6f, soft) 57 days ago. Not discounted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 21/08/2025 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 73 · 7f Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 73 par21/082OR 734 @ Carlisle 01/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 72 · 6f195y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 72 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 6f Sft 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 72 par19/092OR 725 @ Pontefract 06/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 71 · 6f Sft 133 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 71 par3 @ Musselburgh 13/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 71 · 7f15y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 71 par13/103OR 715 @ Pontefract 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 70 · 1m6y Sft 133 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 70 · 7f96y Goo 130 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 70 par15/045OR 704 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 19th of 20 · OR 70 · 7f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 69 · 7f127y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 69 par12/064OR 69projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-12Chester44th3rd+1
2026-05-23York419th18th+1
2026-04-15Beverley53rd3rd0
2025-10-20Pontefract53rd3rd0
2025-10-13Musselburgh32nd0th+2
2025-10-06Pontefract57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/086/1015/0412/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength67%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/202515th33/10%18%+0.18
01/09/20253rd11/142%60%+0.18
19/09/20257th16/116%25%+0.09
06/10/20257th13/266%33%-0.32
13/10/20252nd18/15%86%+0.80
20/10/20253rd10/382%75%-0.07
15/04/20263rd7/163%78%+0.15
23/05/202619th18/15%5%0.00
12/06/20264th6/168%57%-0.11