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12

Yaaser

8yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 58

Ayr · Book The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 50y

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has mostly struggled since his 7f Newcastle win in December but latest length third at Hamilton (8.3f, good to firm) was his best effort of the season. This 4-time course scorer is well treated if able to build on that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 29/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 71 · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 71 par29/124OR 715 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 70 · 6f Std 136 · below its mark16/01/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 69 · 7f14y Std 134 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 69 par6/025OR 695 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 67 · 1m68y Goo 132 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 65 · 7f15y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 65 par6/064OR 656 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 7f15y Gd 141 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 61 · 6f195y Goo 134 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 61 par9/075OR 616 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 59 · 7f50y GF 139 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 58 · 1m68y Gd 125 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 58 par1/085OR 58projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Hamilton53rd3rd0
2026-07-20Ayr63rd4th−1
2026-07-09Carlisle55th5th0
2026-06-22Musselburgh69th10th−1
2026-06-06Musselburgh45th4th+1
2026-05-27Hamilton57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1227/059/071/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/12/20256th9/488%0%-0.88
16/01/20269th14/126%0%-0.26
06/02/20269th15/261%0%-0.61
27/05/20267th11/142%0%-0.42
06/06/20265th18/15%50%+0.45
22/06/20269th5/174%0%-0.74
09/07/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
20/07/20263rd8/158%60%+0.02
01/08/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78