5
Yy Spirit
3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 70
Ayr · Book The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap · 7f 50y
#12
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Ripon | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-12-09 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Southwell | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Newcastle | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-08-19 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength18%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 23/10/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/04/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/05/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |