2
Charencey
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 50
Ayr · Festive Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Nottingham | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Chepstow | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Nottingham | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Leicester | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 16/5 | 83% | 63% | -0.21 |
| 09/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 26/09/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 14/10/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.04 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |