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Falaise Blanc

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 46

Ayr · Festive Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Classified Stakes · 1m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

81%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Just the one win to his name but has been runner-up in 3 of his last 5 starts. Dropped away rather tamely when seventh of 9 in handicap at Musselburgh (13f, good to firm, 15/2) 8 days ago. Back down in trip with blinkers reapplied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 49 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 49 par12/036OR 496 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 48 · 1m5y Std 124 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Musselburgh 29/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 47 · 1m4f104y Goo 119 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 47 par29/046OR 476 @ Catterick 11/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 46 · 1m4f13y Gd 126 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 45 · 1m4f15y Goo 126 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 45 par4/066OR 456 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 47 · 1m5f26y Sft 135 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Hamilton 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 47 · 1m5f16y Goo 143 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 47 par25/066OR 476 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 46 · 1m4f104y Gd 129 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 46 · 1m5f Gd 128 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 46 par31/076OR 46projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Musselburgh67th7th0
2026-06-30Musselburgh62nd2nd0
2026-06-25Hamilton62nd2nd0
2026-06-19Ayr65th5th0
2026-06-04Hamilton62nd2nd0
2026-05-11Catterick68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0311/0525/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/202610th14/126%18%-0.08
13/04/202611th28/10%0%0.00
29/04/20266th20/10%38%+0.38
11/05/20268th50/10%46%+0.46
04/06/20262nd12/137%90%+0.53
19/06/20265th9/153%50%-0.03
25/06/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
30/06/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
31/07/20267th15/261%25%-0.36