Flying Moonlight
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 48
Ayr · Festive Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Catterick | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Redcar | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-08-04 | Carlisle | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/08/2025 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |