4
Golden Valour
10yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 47
Ayr · Festive Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#8
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Carlisle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 29/05/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |