11
Raise The Stakes
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 49
Ayr · Festive Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Lingfield | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-10-24 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 13
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength85%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |
| 20/11/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 02/06/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |