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8

Storm On Jura

4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 48

Ayr · Festive Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Classified Stakes · 1m 2f

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has rarely bettered poor form and she'll need to improve upon her last month's eighth of 12 in handicap at this C&D (good to firm, 20/1).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hamilton 26/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f35y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS26/0655 @ Hamilton 17/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m68y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Hamilton 03/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m68y Goo 133 · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 60 par3/096OR 605 @ Musselburgh 13/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m208y Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 58 par5 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m208y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 56 par26/045OR 566 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m4f15y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 52 · 1m1f35y Goo 135 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 52 par17/066OR 526 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 50 · 1m4f104y Gd 133 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m2f Gd 130 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 50 par6/076OR 50projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06Ayr68th8th0
2026-06-30Musselburgh64th4th0
2026-06-17Hamilton66th6th0
2026-06-04Hamilton69th9th0
2026-04-26Musselburgh511th10th+1
2025-10-13Musselburgh59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0613/1017/066/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 13
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/06/20256th250/10%50%+0.50
17/07/20254th50/10%50%+0.50
03/09/20258th11/142%0%-0.42
13/10/20259th80/10%0%0.00
26/04/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
04/06/20269th6/168%20%-0.48
17/06/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
30/06/20264th33/10%40%+0.40
06/07/20268th20/10%36%+0.36