1
Wicklow Way
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 55
Ayr · Festive Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Nottingham | 5 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength90%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 17/10/2025 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 18/04/2026 | 14th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 02/06/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |