9
Zebra Star
6yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 45
Ayr · Festive Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Classified Stakes · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Musselburgh | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Ayr | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Musselburgh | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 26/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 13/09/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 10% | -0.61 |
| 01/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 09/10/2025 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |
| 05/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 05/07/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 11% | -0.60 |