2
Facenda
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 70
Canterbury Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength67%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2024 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 16/02/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 22/04/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 15/02/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 10% | -0.72 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |