5
Score Mccoy
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 84
Canterbury Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Canterbury Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 17/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |