4
Allison Road
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 56
Canterbury Park · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-09-04 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 30/10/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |