4
Athens Moon
6yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 106
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Turf Paradise | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-24 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 11/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 24/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |