6
Irish Dawn
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 89
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-09-20 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2023 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 03/09/2023 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 24/08/2024 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 20/09/2024 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/07/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 24/07/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |