5
Murdock
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 100
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/6
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-06-23 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2024 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |