2
Got Ghosted
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 75
Canterbury Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/9
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 25% | -0.65 |
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 29/03/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |