Little Trouble
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 106
Canterbury Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 13/01/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/01/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |