1
Socal Red
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 95
Canterbury Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-20 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 27/03/2025 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 23/04/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 31/03/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |