Buckin' Dreamer
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 84
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 18/06/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 14/07/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 29/07/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 25% | -0.65 |