Palm Island
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 83
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-08-14 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-05-07 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2024 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 24/01/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 14/03/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 05/09/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |