3
Pops Harper
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 80
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 23/11/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |