3
Bold Advance
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-29 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 05/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |