6
Nay's Only One
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 68
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Charles Town | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 31/05/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |