Zio Lorenzo
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-09-14 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 57% | -0.33 |
| 27/07/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 17/08/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 04/01/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 15/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |