Feisty Notion
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 46
Colonial Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-07-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 01/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |