3
Intolerable
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 70
Colonial Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 28/11/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 24/12/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/02/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 04/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |