1
Jack Charles
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 73
Colonial Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |