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12

Tik Tok Daddy

5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 75

Colonial Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Laurel Park 29/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark29/06/2025 · OR 79 par29/06C8OR 79C7 @ Delaware Park 14/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 80 · 5f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 80 parC7 @ Laurel Park 14/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 78 par14/09C7OR 78C7 @ Laurel Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 76 · 6f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 76 parC7 @ Laurel Park 26/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 78 · 5f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/10/2025 · OR 78 par26/10C7OR 78C8 @ Laurel Park 10/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 80 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 80 parC8 @ Laurel Park 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 85 par7/06C8OR 85C8 @ Laurel Park 28/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 82 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 82 parC5 @ Charles Town 19/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 82 · 4f110y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 82 par19/07C5OR 82projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Charles Town?5th2nd+3
2026-06-28Laurel Park?6th6th0
2026-06-07Laurel Park?3rd3rd0
2026-05-10Laurel Park?5th5th0
2025-10-26Laurel Park?3rd2nd+1
2025-10-04Laurel Park?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/064/107/0619/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/06/20253rd3/184%71%-0.13
14/08/20253rd8/158%60%+0.02
14/09/20255th5/174%56%-0.18
04/10/20252nd9/153%88%+0.35
26/10/20253rd7/282%78%-0.04
10/05/20265th4/179%56%-0.23
07/06/20263rd3/184%78%-0.06
28/06/20266th9/276%0%-0.76
19/07/20265th25/10%20%+0.20