Authentic Wave
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 79
Colonial Downs · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |