10
Band On The Run
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 83
Colonial Downs · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-12-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength93%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 22% | -0.62 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |