1
Beara Peninsula
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 84
Colonial Downs · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | BHA75 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 08/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 28/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |