Devastating
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 87
Colonial Downs · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 54% | -0.09 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 67% | -0.29 |