Don't Fool With Me
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 81
Colonial Downs · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-12-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 11/10 | 94% | 29% | -0.66 |
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 27/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 28/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |