Duchessa
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 86
Colonial Downs · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 27/12/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |