4
Mishka
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 57
Colonial Downs · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/11/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 15/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 04/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |