9
Oscar Bound
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 73
Colonial Downs · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength16%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 10/11/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |