3
Skittliedat
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 71
Colonial Downs · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-03-29 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 17/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 02/11/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 29/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/04/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |